Disclaimer: This guide is for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice, not a solicitation, and not for UK audiences. Prediction markets are risky and not suitable for all users.
What exactly is Polymarket?
Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform that is built on blockchain technology. Unlike traditional betting sites, Polymarket does not act as a bookmaker. Instead, it lets users directly trade shares that represent the likelihood of real-world events. Trades happen peer-to-peer using USDC, a stablecoin, on the Polygon network.
You don’t need to sign up with your name or complete paperwork; all you need is a crypto wallet like MetaMask to get started. Just download MetaMask Mobile, or update to the latest version of the app on iOS or Android, to trade prediction markets via Polymarket on your phone. You retain control (self-custody) of your funds throughout the process, making the platform accessible to a global audience (subject to local regulations).
In essence, Polymarket turns collective public opinion into fast-moving prices, offering a transparent way to see—and participate in—what people believe will happen in the news, finance, sports, and more.
Why is Polymarket so popular?
Several features have helped Polymarket grow a large and active user base around the world:
Real-time market sentiment: Prices on Polymarket shift instantly as news breaks, capturing what the crowd thinks about the odds of an event as it happens.
Wide variety of markets: From politics and economics to sports, weather, crypto, entertainment, and policy debates, Polymarket covers hundreds of questions that users care about.
No central house: Because it’s peer-to-peer, every trader is matched with another user—not the house. This supports fairer pricing and flexible trading.
Blockchain transparency: Every market, trade, and outcome is logged on-chain for anyone to verify. This means greater trust, lower risk of manipulation, and auditable payouts.
Simple, intuitive trading: Users buy “yes” or “no” shares. The price directly signals the market’s consensus on the probability of each event.
Low fees and fast settlement: With Polygon’s low transaction fees and quick confirmations, trading and settling are efficient—important for active market watchers.
Many users appreciate that Polymarket lets them express informed opinions, hedge personal or business risks, or simply keep tabs on the crowd’s best guess for upcoming events.
How does Polymarket work?
Using Polymarket is simple for anyone familiar with crypto wallets. You can start trading MetaMask Prediction Markets via Polymarket right from your phone.
Download a secure crypto wallet: Get MetaMask Mobile App, or update to the latest version on iOS or Android.
Fund your account: With MetaMask Prediction Market trading via Polymarket, you can use any EVM token on any network to fund your prediction market account on mobile.
Browse and select a market: Polymarket lists a wide range of active markets. Each market provides clear criteria for settlement, so you know exactly what needs to happen for a “yes” or “no” to win.
Buy or sell shares: Each share costs between $0.01 and $1.00. Buying a “yes” share at $0.42 means you think there’s a 42% chance the event happens; if you’re right, you’ll receive $1 when the market resolves.
Trade anytime: You don’t have to wait for resolution. You can buy or sell positions at any time before the market closes, locking in a profit or minimizing loss as the odds shift.
Wait for resolution and payouts: Once the event occurs, a decentralized oracle (data feed) determines the outcome. “Yes” shares settle at $1 if correct ($0 if not), and payouts are sent automatically to your wallet.
Withdraw or reinvest: After settlement, you can keep trading or withdraw earnings back to your wallet.
This automated, open process sets Polymarket apart from traditional betting and prediction sites.
Events you can trade on Polymarket
Polymarket is popular because it provides up-to-the-minute markets on nearly every topic making global headlines. Examples include:
Elections: US presidential, congressional, EU, and other national and regional elections.
Sports: Super Bowl, World Cup, Grand Slam finals, NBA playoffs, and more.
Crypto and finance: Questions like “Will bitcoin close above $50,000 this month?” or “Will the Fed hike rates at the next meeting?”
Macroeconomics: Inflation prints, CPI releases, GDP growth, unemployment statistics.
Policy and legislation: Will a specific bill pass before a certain date, or will a regulation be enacted?
Weather and news: Outcomes tied to natural disasters, celebrity events, or trending topics in current affairs.
Coverage is diverse and constantly evolving as new headline events appear. The most liquid markets usually reflect high-profile elections, major sporting events, and widely watched crypto or financial milestones.
What are the risks of using Polymarket?
While Polymarket offers unique advantages, users should clearly understand the risks involved:
Market risk: Like any financial market, you might lose all the funds you put into an incorrect position.
Low liquidity: Less popular markets may lack buyers or sellers, making it hard to enter or exit a position, especially close to event resolution.
Thin markets: In less popular markets, large trades or rumors may distort prices, though blockchain transparency helps limit this risk.
Regulatory availability: Some countries (like Singapore and Thailand) restrict or prohibit prediction markets, and legal frameworks are changing quickly. Always check local regulations for regional prediction market availability before trading.
Oracle settlement: Market outcomes rely on third-party oracles to verify results. Occasionally, disputes or unclear market wording can delay payouts.
Smart contract risk: As with any blockchain protocol, bugs or exploits are possible, though thorough security audits, and trusted wallets like MetaMask, help reduce this risk.
New users should only risk what they can afford to lose and always check local laws before participating.
Key features and fees
Peer-to-peer market structure: There’s no central bookmaker. All trades are user-to-user.
Collateralization: All outcomes are backed by USDC, ensuring prompt and reliable payouts on market resolution.
No platform token required: All trading and settlement is in USDC, a US dollar-pegged stablecoin.
Simple, binary market format: Most markets offer clear “yes or no” choices for ease of use and clarity.
Fast resolution: Oracles like Chainlink and UMA confirm outcomes quickly, with community disputes possible if outcomes are unclear.
Is Polymarket legal in my country?
Polymarket’s availability depends on local regulations. In some countries, prediction markets qualify as gambling and are restricted or banned; in others, they operate in a legal gray area as blockchain-based protocols.
Check local rules: Before using Polymarket, read current regulations in your country or region.
Geo-fencing: Polymarket restricts service in certain jurisdictions (for example, the UK or US).
Use responsibly: Only participate where legal and if you fully understand the risks.
How accurate are Polymarket’s predictions?
Many academic studies show that active, liquid prediction markets can outperform traditional polls and even expert forecasters. This is because they blend thousands of diverse views, let users update positions as news breaks, and create incentives for informed, honest forecasting.
However, accuracy is highest in large, popular markets. Smaller or less-followed events can be more volatile, and prices may not always reflect the true outcome probability.
The future of decentralized prediction markets
Platforms like Polymarket are at the forefront of democratizing forecasting and making real-world event probabilities transparent to all. With growing participation, more sophisticated oracle technology, and evolving regulatory clarity, decentralized prediction markets are expected to become:
More widely used by institutions, journalists, and researchers
Faster and more reliable in market resolution
Easier to access via mobile and simplified onboarding
As a result, users worldwide are using Polymarket not just to trade, but to gather unique, valuable real-time data on global events.
Ready to get started? Connect to MetaMask Mobile and explore what the world is speculating on today with prediction markets via Polymarket.
Frequently Asked Questions about Polymarket
Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market where users trade shares on the outcomes of real-world events using USDC on the Polygon blockchain.
You buy “yes” or “no” shares in a market. Prices reflect the probability of an outcome. After the event is resolved, winning shares pay $1 and losing shares pay $0.
No. Check your local regulations before using Polymarket; some regions ban or restrict access.
Market prices often reflect real-time consensus and can outperform polls, but they are not foolproof, and performance depends on market size and liquidity.
