SpaceX closed at $161. Crypto markets called it.

The SpaceX IPO priced June 11 and dropped on Nasdaq June 12. It was expected to be the largest public offering in history at around $1.75 trillion. Buzz and interest in the stock has been unprecedented, and the capital rotation is already visible onchain: $4.4 billion leaving Bitcoin ETFs, $215 million in synthetic open interest (OI) building on pre-IPO perps, and over $33 million traded on Polymarket's SpaceX outcome markets. These are surfaces only crypto can see and all are accessible through MetaMask.

Update—June 13, 2026: SPCX listed on Nasdaq on June 12 and closed its first session at $160.95, up 19.3% from the $135 IPO price, with an intraday high of $176.52 and a market cap above $2.1 trillion. The Polymarket closing total capitalization market resolved: the $1.75–2.0T bracket paid out. The Hyperliquid perp, which was pricing around $157 when this article originally published on June 10, ran to $176–183 by listing morning before settling near $172 at close, a ~7% premium to the Nasdaq close. The original article below reflects conditions as of June 10, 2026.

SpaceX onchain: Perp, RWA, and prediction

Perps: SPCX perpetual on Hyperliquid, live now via MetaMask Perps. USDC-settled, no expiry. The pre-IPO contract auto-transitions to a standard SPCX perp at listing.

Tokenized stock: Ondo Global Markets tokenized SPCX, expected same-day as the Nasdaq listing via MetaMask Swaps on Ethereum mainnet. Self-custodial, 24/5 trading, fractional. 

Prediction markets: SpaceX IPO closing market cap, valuation brackets, and IPO date markets on Polymarket, accessible via MetaMask. 

Availability varies by jurisdiction. 

The SpaceX capital rotation: What the data shows

The narrative is everywhere: speculative capital is rotating out of crypto and into the AI IPO wave. Michael Saylor, BNP Paribas, and dozens of crypto Twitter threads are all making the same argument. But few look at what is actually happening across the onchain surfaces where this rotation is visible.

Bitcoin ETF outflows. As we reported last week, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded 13 consecutive sessions of net outflows from May 15 to June 3—the longest streak since the products launched in January 2024. Total outflows: $4.4 billion. Since May 15, BTC has dropped roughly 21%—falling below $60,000 on June 5 for the first time since September 2024. The same day, the Nasdaq fell 4.2%, its worst session of 2026.

The scale of what is competing for the same capital. SpaceX is raising ~$75 billion. OpenAI filed at $852 billion. Anthropic at $965 billion. Combined hyperscaler CapEx is projected above $600 billion for 2026. Saylor framed it plainly: roughly $400 billion of AI buildout was funded in six months, while Bitcoin ETFs saw $4 billion in outflows since May 14. The capital pool is the same. The allocation decision is what changed.

Crypto data tells a different story. SpaceX exposure is building rather than draining.

• SPCX pre-IPO perps have accumulated over $215 million in open interest and $2.2 billion in cumulative volume across Hyperliquid, Coinbase, Binance, and other venues

• Polymarket's SpaceX outcome markets have drawn over $33 million in trading volume

• Ondo Global Markets, which will offer tokenized SPCX the first day it hits Nasdaq, already crossed $1 billion in TVL in under eight months.

Capital is not just leaving crypto. It is also flowing through crypto to access SpaceX—via perps, tokenized equity, and prediction markets that exist nowhere else. The rotation story is real. But it is more complicated than money out.

SpaceX basics

555.6 million Class A shares at a fixed price of $135. Nasdaq ticker SPCX. Expected first trade: June 12, 2026. Valuation: ~$1.75 trillion. The deal is already oversubscribed, with demand at roughly $150 billion—double the raise.

SpaceX merged with xAI in February 2026 at a $1.25 trillion combined valuation. The S-1 shows consolidated 2025 revenue of $18.67 billion and a $4.94 billion net loss, driven by xAI's $6.35 billion operating loss. Starlink did $11.4 billion at a 39% operating margin.

Crypto-native detail: SpaceX's S-1 disclosed 18,712 BTC at a fair value of ~$1.29 billion. Onchain trackers had estimated 8,285 BTC. Under FASB fair-value accounting, those holdings flow through quarterly earnings. SPCX is partially a Bitcoin proxy for every TradFi allocator buying the stock.

Elon Musk retains 82.4% of voting power. Existing shareholders are locked up for 366 days. For broader space-sector context, see our earlier SpaceX Alpha coverage.

Three SpaceX markets, one reference price

By Friday, SPCX exposure exists across multiple distinct markets simultaneously: Nasdaq common stock, tokenized SPCX via Ondo on MetaMask, SPCX perps on Hyperliquid via MetaMask, and Polymarket outcome contracts.

The richest information is in the basis between them. The SPCX perp vs the Nasdaq first print measures crypto vs TradFi price discovery—and the Cerebras precedent suggests a 100–250 basis point convergence window within the first six trading hours. The perp vs. tokenized spot spread reveals whether perps are being used to hedge allocations or express directional conviction.

SpaceX perps on MetaMask: the $135 vs ~$155 basis

SPCX perps are live on Hyperliquid's HIP-3/Trade.xyz builder market—tradeable through MetaMask Perps. As of this writing: mark around $155, open interest around $97.5 million on Hyperliquid alone (over $215 million aggregated across venues), and $2.2 billion in cumulative volume.

The premium. The perp is pricing a roughly 15% day-one pop above the $135 IPO price. This is the synthetic market's implied first-trade range before a single Nasdaq share changes hands.

The auto-transition. The pre-IPO SPCX contract automatically converts to a standard SPCX perpetual at listing—no close, no reopen, continuous exposure from private to public. Positions carry through seamlessly. Post-IPO, the contract functions like any other equity perp on MetaMask: leveraged long/short exposure to the SPCX price, 24/7, USDC-settled, no brokerage account needed. The data trail is continuous, which means the basis between the pre-IPO mark and the Nasdaq first print is a clean read on convergence accuracy.

Convergence precedent. When Cerebras listed on Nasdaq, its Hyperliquid pre-IPO perp had already priced within 1.3% of the $350 opening price. That is the benchmark for whether these synthetic markets produce real price discovery or just speculative noise. SPCX is a far larger test.

The funding paradox. Annualized funding was recently slightly negative despite the premium to IPO price. In a simple one-way long frenzy, funding would be sharply positive—longs paying shorts to maintain positions. Negative funding signals meaningful short or hedge demand at current levels. Watch whether funding flips sharply positive into Friday. If price rises and funding turns strongly positive, that is crowding. If price holds a premium while funding stays flat or negative, the market may be more two-sided than the headline suggests.

The OI cap. SPCX has a $150 million streaming OI cap on Hyperliquid, and live OI is already consuming roughly two-thirds of it. If demand ramps into Friday, the cap may bind. A capped perp market can trade with wider basis, more slippage, and more violent squeezes around liquidation or oracle updates.

TSLA perps are already among the most active equity perps on MetaMask and one traders will also be watching. TSLA has historically tracked Musk sentiment, and SPCX creates a new correlation data point on day one.

For more on the mechanics, see perpetual futures vs spot.

Tokenized SPCX 

MetaMask already offers 260+ tokenized US stocks, ETFs, and commodities through Ondo Global Markets—accessible via MetaMask Swaps on Ethereum mainnet using USDC. SPCX is next.

Ondo's Global Listing model brings public equity tokens onchain the same day they list on the underlying exchange. Tokenized SPCX exposure could appear on Ethereum, Solana, and Base within hours of the June 12 Nasdaq open. 

The tokenized price may diverge from the Nasdaq price during off-hours or periods of thin liquidity. That spread itself is a signal—measuring whether the market treats tokenized IPO access as a real substitute for equity ownership or as a product with its own price dynamics.

For more on how tokenized equities work: understanding tokenized real-world assets, how to verify RWA tokens, and self-custodial vs custodial trading.

Polymarket's SpaceX odds: The prediction market read on SPCX

Prediction markets offer a different lens: not price exposure, but probability-weighted views on specific outcomes. Polymarket, accessible through MetaMask, has multiple active SpaceX markets with over $33 million in combined trading volume.

Closing market cap. The most actively traded market asks where SPCX's market cap lands after day one. The crowd assigns 99% probability to a closing market cap above $1 trillion and 95% probability the IPO valuation falls between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion. 

What the odds add. The perp prices a continuous mark. The prediction market prices a binary outcome at a specific threshold. Together: the perp mark says the synthetic market expects SPCX to open around $155. The prediction market says there is a 95% chance the implied valuation stays between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion.

MetaMask Alpha is MetaMask's market digest. Not financial advice—just context, data, and signal.

Disclaimer: This content is for general information purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any particular digital asset or to employ any specific investment strategy.