Advanced prediction market trading strategies

Prediction Markets let you forecast the future outcomes of real world events across sports, politics, culture, entertainment, tech, and beyond, directly from your wallet. Whether you're looking for advanced prediction market trading strategies used by pros or are just getting started, we've got you covered. Below, you’ll learn how to build your trading edge with tools like MetaMask Prediction Markets via Polymarket.

Meet Domer, AKA @ImJustKen on Polymarket, who has been trading prediction markets since 2007 with nearly 10,000 predictions and $2.5M+ net profit, including $100K during Dec 22-28 of 2025 alone. He's placed hundreds of thousands of dollars across hundreds of positions. In this article, Domer shares tactics for advanced prediction markets trading and what motivates him to stay winning.

Key prediction market trading takeaways 

• Discover strategies for advanced prediction market trading on platforms like Polymarket via MetaMask.

• Understand why placing small bets and diversifying can improve long-term performance.

• Use news analysis, baseline pricing, and market sentiment to adjust predictions.

• Develop independent opinions to stay ahead of the crowd instead of chasing headlines.

• Build an edge by researching deeply across politics, economics, and current events.

• Spot discrepancies across markets and leverage informational arbitrage opportunities.

• Track live odds with Twitter alerts, Discord bots, and other monitoring tools.

• Recognize the manual mechanics and discipline involved in precision trading.

• Cultivate a competitive mindset, and treat profits as a performance scoreboard.

• Always do your own research and consult experts before placing large trades.

• Explore the truth aspect of prediction markets.

• Trade Prediction Markets on MetaMask via Polymarket to apply pro level strategies.

The following content features quotes edited from a conversation with Domer during a MetaMask Prediction Markets livestream.

Learn the number one tip for prediction market trading

“Try it out: You can find a prediction market on anything you can think of. You're not forced to trade anything, you’re not forced to trade a market everyone is trading. Start with a small dollar amount and just play around with it. Let's say you deposit $20. The worst you can do is lose $20. That's not that big of a deal. 

Maybe you find a hobby that you like and maybe it turns into something that's a little bit of extra income. Or, maybe you find out you're not cracked up to try and do this. It's worth a shot for sure. There are tons of different events, so you can find one that suits you and matches your interests.

That's one thing about markets: the price is always changing even if the underlying information isn't.”

Essential and advanced strategies for prediction market trading

Place small bets 

“I make a lot of small predictions. Of those 10,000,  something like 8,000 are not very big. I kind of pick my spots. And you can scroll down and see that as soon as you get past number 25 they start to get smaller. A big market in predictions right now, and one a lot of people are trading, is who is going to be the next Fed Chair. 

Use a combination of different trading tactics 

"There are a variety of trading approaches, and I try to employ all of them. Take who will Trump choose as Fed Chair market, for example. A lot of thought goes into that, a lot of research. You're thinking very deeply about the topic, and you're also trying to think about it from all angles. When you read these articles—and there's pretty much something every day—there are constantly news events that move the price. "

Stay one step ahead of the crowd

"You have to come up with baseline pricing that you're trading off of, whether that's opinion based or fact based. If you're just trying to chase the news or what other people are thinking, you're probably going to end up one step behind at some point. There's a certain degree to which you have to generate your own opinions. As new info comes in, you modify those opinions and prices.”

Honing your sources and find your edge

Get info and data from a variety of places 

“In terms of the sources I use for info and to get an edge, it varies by market. With the Fed Chair choice, it's not just political. It's such an important position that you really need at least a little bit of familiarity with the economic scenarios that are at play. 

The market is more important than what Trump wants. What Trump wants is important, but there's also the reality of the situation that the Fed Chair is a big role. You need someone who is competent. 

Let's say Trump nominated his son. The stock market would probably go down 5% that day. You can't nominate someone who isn't serious for a very serious position. There's a degree to which politics plays a big role, but you have to figure out how it plays into markets, and how it plays into economics. There are a lot of different elements that you want to be familiar with in addition to what is happening today and tomorrow.”

Seek out discrepancies across markets 

“If you think about Polymarket, I don’t know exactly how many open markets exist right now, but I'd guess there are over 1000, and that covers the gamut. I have positions open on everything from strikes on Iran, and Fed Chair positon, to Avatar and who will win the Oscar for best picture. A lot of my day to day involves just going through hundreds of markets. 

Nine times out of ten, I see the price, and it seems fine. But if I see something where the price is a little bit off, I start to research that. It's a process. 

Just because a market is super popular, doesn't mean you have to trade it. Trading is your own decision to make, and I'm very picky about it. Although it probably doesn't seem like it based on the number of positions I have. 

In a way, it’s a kind of opinion arbitrage, a delta between what I think and what the crowd thinks… you're going to be wrong a lot. I'm trying to be right 60% of the time. Because if I'm right 60% of the time, I'm making a lot of money. If you lose 40% of the time, that's a lot of money out the door, but you have to look at it in the long term. You're trying to be better than average.”

Use different tools to track market moves

“When I’m watching market movements, there are various tools like Twitter accounts or Discord bots that let you know if the price of something has gone up or down. On any given day, various channels can be pinging you a lot about change in price, new markets.”

Explore prediction markets trading mechanics

“The mechanics of trading—opening, maintaining, and closing positions, clicking and making the purchase and the sale by hand—are all done by me. Hopefully that changes within the next year, but as of right now it's still pretty manual. 

That said, there's a degree where it can be helpful having the tactile manual aspect of trading, because I've seen bots go rogue and that can be a dangerous situation. You have to be careful especially when money is at stake. “

Discover what motivates the world’s most successful prediction markets trader

Each day I do something different. Today I got up and looked at what changed in the Fed market. Tomorrow I might get up and look at what the reviews for Avatar are like. Three days from now it's whether the Oscar odds have changed. Every day is an adventure, jumping from topic to topic which is exciting. I find it fun.

 What really motivates me is the competition… The money is a very important thing. But there's also a kind of scoreboard. That 2 and a half million in profits I’ve earned is essentially like I have 2 and a half million points, and other people are trying to get a higher score than me. So, competition is my number one motivator. “

Do your own research

“I don't think I've gotten as far as cultivating my own sources necessarily, or getting primary intel I can spin into an edge. But you do have to behave like a reporter depending on how much money you’re betting in order to get to the heart of the story, and figure out the various players.

For example, let's say I'm betting $500 on something. For me that is not a super big bet. I probably wouldn't go into the weeds. If I’m starting to bet tens of thousands of dollars, it's a serious thing and I want a serious approach to that. 

I’ll start to think about who the people I can ask about that market are. Because if I'm researching something and I'm not an expert, I have to try and become an expert. In order to do that you end up talking to people who are much smarter than yourself on any given topic.  I’ll reach out to people involved in a particular market of interest directly with a call or email. They’re often happy to talk about what they’re doing. “

Find truth in the markets 

“Prediction markets kind of hold you to account. If you're right, you'll win money. If you're wrong, you'll lose it. I think it’s cool that there's a degree of truth to what you're doing, no matter what.”

Bet with or against the crowd 

“Oftentimes you have two options with prediction markets: you can either bet on somebody getting the job or against them.  The Fed Chair is a really good example of this. So, in this case, I’ve bet against a candidate. Specifically, I don't think Kevin Hassett will be nominated for Fed Chair. I could easily be wrong, so don't start wagering money on my opinion.

I bet no on Hassett, and in essence by doing this I’m betting yes on every other person in the world including within this market. 

The other thing I've focused on with this market are the people I think are realistic, regardless of their odds. I've picked up on who I think it could be, like Scott Bessent. He is kind of controversial, because whenever Trump talks about this he's like oh I wish I could pick Bessent I wish I could pick Bessent I wish I could pick Bessent. Bessent is the one leading the search. 

Very famously, about 25 years ago the then presidential candidate George W. Bush had Dick Cheney lead his VP search and he ended up becoming VP. It happens from time to time. If Trump is expressing a preference for Scott Bessent, maybe he picks him. If that one hits, it will be a really good story…”

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Note:  This content is offered for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered professional advice. This content is not intended for users in all jurisdictions, and users are responsible for determining whether it is legal in their jurisdiction to participate in prediction markets. You assume all risk for how you may choose to use the information provided.