Trade prediction markets

A prediction market is a platform where you can trade on the outcomes of future events, like politics, sports, crypto, or cultural changes. Each market typically offers a binary choice of yes or no. If the predicted event happens the way you think it will, the contract pays out a fixed amount. If it goes the other way, you receive nothing and lose the money you put in. The market price of a contract reflects the collective probability estimate that the event will happen, aggregating diverse opinions through the financial incentives motivating traders.

By trading with real money, it is thought that users reveal their true beliefs and information about the likelihood of outcomes. This aggregation often leads prediction markets to provide more accurate forecasts than individual experts or polls, as prices dynamically adjust to new data and trader actions. Prediction markets function as a form of crowdsourcing, synthesizing dispersed information into consolidated probability insights.

Trading happens through an open order book where prices fluctuate based on supply and demand from all participants. Markets resolve at event completion, paying out winners and settling accounts automatically.

Prediction markets attract a wide range of people interested in forecasting the future and leveraging collective intelligence. The main user subgroups include:

• Individual Traders: Everyday users and retail traders who want to speculate or earn profits on the outcomes of real-world events such as sports, politics, or cryptocurrency price moves. These individuals are often seeking information advantages, quick decisions, and real-time odds to guide their positions.

• Researchers and Academics: Academics, data scientists, and forecasters use prediction markets to study collective intelligence, social behavior, and accuracy of crowd predictions. Researchers analyze market outcomes to improve models for forecasting and understand the dynamics of group decision-making.

• Institutions and Organizations: Businesses, non-profits, and government agencies leverage prediction markets for internal decision-making, resource allocation, and risk analysis. Organizations use market signals to inform planning, policy, and strategic moves under uncertain conditions.

• Event Enthusiasts and Fans: Sports fans, politicos, and pop culture followers participate for fun, engagement, or to signal their views on upcoming event outcomes. Many use prediction markets as a social tool, tracking live odds and sharing insights with communities in real time.

Each group benefits from the market’s ability to aggregate wisdom, deliver actionable forecasts, and offer transparent, data-driven signals about the future.

Polymarket, now available through MetaMask, is the world’s most popular prediction markets provider. 

Tradable events include politics, sports, crypto, weather, pop culture, financial markets, and more. 

Risks include potential manipulation, biased trading, liquidity constraints, and regulatory uncertainty. Users should understand these and trade responsibly knowing they can lose their entire investment.  Prediction markets are not available in all jurisdictions.

To make predictions on MetaMask, you pay a 4% transaction fee to MetaMask and Polymarket. No fees are taken when depositing, cashing out, or withdrawing.

You earn 2 points for every $1 you trade with MetaMask Prediction Markets. For more about MetaMask Rewards, head here.