Trade prediction markets

A prediction market is a platform where you can trade on the outcomes of future events, like politics, sports, crypto, or cultural changes. Each market typically offers a binary choice of yes or no. If the predicted event happens the way you think it will, the contract pays out a fixed amount. If it goes the other way, you receive nothing and lose the money you put in. The market price of a contract reflects the collective probability estimate that the event will happen, aggregating diverse opinions through the financial incentives motivating traders.

By trading with real money, it is thought that users reveal their true beliefs and information about the likelihood of outcomes. This aggregation often leads prediction markets to provide more accurate forecasts than individual experts or polls, as prices dynamically adjust to new data and trader actions. Prediction markets function as a form of crowdsourcing, synthesizing dispersed information into consolidated probability insights.

Trading happens through an open order book where prices fluctuate based on supply and demand from all participants. Markets resolve at event completion, paying out winners and settling accounts automatically.

MetaMask Prediction Markets trading is not available to users in the following regions: Australia, Belgium, France, Germany, Netherlands, Switzerland, Ontario (Canada), Poland, Romania, Singapore, Spain, India, Taiwan, Thailand, Ukraine, UK, USA—as well as countries on the USA sanctions list.

Prediction markets attract a wide range of people interested in forecasting the future and leveraging collective intelligence. The main user subgroups include:

• Individual Traders: Everyday users and retail traders who want to speculate or earn profits on the outcomes of real-world events such as sports, politics, or cryptocurrency price moves. These individuals are often seeking information advantages, quick decisions, and real-time odds to guide their positions.

• Researchers and Academics: Academics, data scientists, and forecasters use prediction markets to study collective intelligence, social behavior, and accuracy of crowd predictions. Researchers analyze market outcomes to improve models for forecasting and understand the dynamics of group decision-making.

• Institutions and Organizations: Businesses, non-profits, and government agencies leverage prediction markets for internal decision-making, resource allocation, and risk analysis. Organizations use market signals to inform planning, policy, and strategic moves under uncertain conditions.

• Event Enthusiasts and Fans: Sports fans, politicos, and pop culture followers participate for fun, engagement, or to signal their views on upcoming event outcomes. Many use prediction markets as a social tool, tracking live odds and sharing insights with communities in real time.

Each group benefits from the market’s ability to aggregate wisdom, deliver actionable forecasts, and offer transparent, data-driven signals about the future.

Polymarket, now available through MetaMask, is the world’s most popular prediction markets provider.

Tradable events include politics, sports, crypto, weather, pop culture, financial markets, and more. 

Risks include potential manipulation, biased trading, liquidity constraints, and regulatory uncertainty. Users should understand these and trade responsibly knowing they can lose their entire investment.  Prediction markets are not available in all jurisdictions.

To make predictions on MetaMask mobile app, you pay a 4% transaction fee to MetaMask and Polymarket. No fees are taken when depositing, cashing out, or withdrawing.

Order books list live buy/sell offers by price, letting MetaMask users trade Polymarket positions dynamically for crypto prediction opportunities.

In other words, order books are like a live shopping list. One side shows buy prices people offer ("I'll pay $0.46 for Yes!"), the other shows sell prices ("Selling Yes for $0.48!"). Pick any match in MetaMask to trade instantly; prices move as everyone shops.

Polymarket markets are resolved according to predefined rules found under the market's order book, with holders of winning shares receiving $1 per share.

Kalshi or Robinhood are US regulated platforms with fiat and KYC requirements. MetaMask offers in app mobile access to Polymarket's global prediction markets outside of the US, with no KYC needed. Remember: Prediction market trading is subject to local rules and regulations.

MetaMask via Polymarket offers prediction markets trading on NFL games, NBA games, MVP odds, and global sports events right from your mobile device. You can get started in just a few taps.

Check out our guide to essential prediction market trading terms and key concepts such as: Polymarket, prediction markets, take profit / stop loss order, order books, arbitrage, betting markets, liquidity, odds, total volume, 24 hour volume, and other important topics.