Prediction markets are a way to forecast the future, offering experienced traders and everyday users a way to speculate on the final outcome of real-world events.
In 2026, these markets have gone global and mainstream, with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi handling billions in trading volume and encompassing everything from elections and sports to financial markets and cultural events. To start placing predictions via Polymarket, all you have to do is connect to MetaMask Mobile. Trading is available globally, subject to regional regulations.
Below, we break down the most popular prediction market categories in 2026, and highlight frequently searched topics driving trading today.
Disclaimer: This guide is for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice, not a solicitation, and not for UK audiences. Prediction markets are risky and not suitable for all users.
Politics & elections
Political markets are among the most active and searched for categories in prediction trading. Users trade event contracts related to high-profile elections, leadership contests, geopolitical outcomes, and more.
Market | Key info |
|---|
Who will be the next US President? | Popular contracts track candidates like Gavin Newsom, J.D. Vance, and even Donald Trump, with millions in volume for 2028 election forecasts. |
Who will be the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee? Who will be the 2028 Republican presidential nominee? | Markets follow the races to represent each party, with dozens of potential names and shifting probabilities throughout the primary season. |
Will there be a US government shutdown? | Markets track the likelihood and timing of various US political events with significant economic and political stakes. |
Major international election outcomes | Markets track global presidential elections in Chile, Romania, Poland, South Korea, and more. |
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? | Governance markets, like Fed Chair nominee, attract substantial trading around key appointments. |
Sports: Championships, MVPs, and game outcomes
Sports prediction markets have grown significantly in 2026 alongside political markets, contributing to overall high trading volumes. Users trade event contracts on both outcomes and in-game events, often in real time as news breaks or lineups change.
Market | Key info |
|---|
Who will win the Super Bowl? | Teams like the Seattle Seahawks, Kansas City Chiefs, and LA Rams feature as leading picks each year. |
Winter Olympics 2026 | Olympics markets encompass every aspect of the Milano Cortina games—from individual games like the hockey finals to total medal count by nation. |
NBA, MLB, and NHL Champions | Markets exist for every major league: “Who will win the 2026 NBA Finals?” “Who will be the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?” etc. |
Champions League, English Premier League, 2026 World Cup winners | International football events receive heavy interest and trading volume, especially around tournament time and the end of the season. |
Who will be NBA/MLB/NFL MVP? | Individual player award markets (e.g., "Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win NBA MVP?") draw millions in action. |
Crypto, economic, and financial markets
Prediction markets on digital assets including stocks, ETFs, commodities and currencies, major financial indicators, and macroeconomic news attract a globally diverse user base.
Market | Key info |
|---|
What price will Bitcoin hit in March? | Extensive open trading targets Bitcoin price moves, like BTC reaching $60,000, $80,000, $100,000 and beyond. |
What price will Ethereum hit this month? | ETH price brackets track short and long term periods. |
Will gold hit $6K by June? | Commodities price brackets track short and long term periods |
Will the Fed change interest rates? | Markets track upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, interest rate hikes/cuts, CPI releases, and economic growth numbers. |
World's largest company by market cap at the end of June | Traders forecast enterprise growth, with companies like NVIDIA, Apple, and Google in the running. |
Tech & science
Technology and science event markets are a rising trend in 2026, fueled by innovation and fast-moving news cycles.
Market | Key info |
|---|
Which company will have the best AI model this month? | Traders evaluate Anthropic, Google, OpenAI, and others on AI user adoption, benchmarks, and breakthroughs. |
Will there be a breakthrough in fusion energy in 2026? | Long-term science forecasting attracts both enthusiasts and professionals. |
Major product launches or tech regulation | Product launch forecasting—e.g., "Will Apple release an AR device by December 2026?”—receives high trading volume. |
Pop culture, media, and special events
Culture prediction markets offer users a chance to trade on viral moments, awards ceremonies, and TV/film events.
Market | Key info |
|---|
Who will win at the Oscars? | Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor and other top awards are popular film markets. |
Who will win at the Grammys? | Album of the Year, Artist of the Year, Song of the Year, and other top awards are popular music markets. |
Eurovision/Reality TV outcomes | Traders predict winners, finalists, and other plot twists. |
Miscellaneous & niche markets
Some of the most creative and engaging prediction markets fall outside traditional categories—covering everything from weather to celebrity news to unusual political scenarios.
Market | Key info |
|---|
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | Traders speculate about humanity's most contested topics. |
Will aliens land on earth before 2027? | Forecasting on the arrival of extraterrestrials abounds. |
Will Taylor Swift be mentioned during the Super Bowl halftime show? | “Mention markets” on broadcasted words or phrases surge in popularity around major events. |
Trends in prediction markets during 2026
Exponential volume: Billions of dollars are now traded on prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, with sports and politics leading in both transaction count and open interest.
Real-time sentiment: Prices move rapidly as news breaks—offering fast, dynamic signals far more responsive than traditional polls or consensus forecasts.
Regulatory & regional expansion: Crypto-native platform Polymarket maintains international liquidity and flexibility.
Broad event coverage: Thousands of markets run simultaneously, covering tentpole events, rapidly emerging topics, and user-created forecasts.
Institutional & retail participation: Activity is balanced between everyday users and sophisticated traders seeking hedges or information edge.
Conclusion
Whether you want to trade on who will be the next US president, who’s going to win the 2026 NBA finals, where Bitcoin will close next month, or even what will be said on TV during a big game, prediction markets offer deep liquidity and wide-ranging opportunities across every major news cycle.
